We have developed a proprietary economic recession barometer to gauge potential economic recessions. Currently, the barometer shows a low indication of potential economic recession during the next three months, however the number risks has increased during the last several months. Our model is comprised of multiple consumer, industrial, and global economic indicators. In conjunction, we model multiple scenarios to better understand the degree of probability. Both of our Base and Best case scenarios show no signs of potential recession. However, the Worst case scenario indicates an upcoming recession is highly likely.
This monitor provides the warning of U.S. economic recessions using proprietary models plus current interest rate indicators as a flat yield curve has historically indicated economic slowdowns. To build the barometer we have analyzed hundreds of economic indicators to build a model comprised of multiple consumer, industrial, and global economic indicators. There are several indicators that have caused for increased concerns over the last several months, especially within the consumer metrics that we follow. Therefore, we are actively monitoring the consumer metrics closely.